My official plays

[jcambert]

Both plays are at Wsex.

Tomb Raider OVER 26 +115. Simply too much value here. This is a film that should go over easily, even if it DOES underperform. Most experts are predicting in the low to mid thirties, and, even if it does less than that, it might still go over. Taking back +115 makes this a no brainer play. Not saying that it WILL go over, just that it's a tremendous value. I would say that there is around a 55% chance that it goes over this number, and, to be taking back money on a better than 50-50 shot makes this an easy call. I'm predicting right around $30mil for this one.

Seabiscuit UNDER 17+130. Official theater counts put this film in just under 2000 theaters, as opposed to the originally 2200+ theaters it was expected to open in. In addition, this just isn't "blockbuster" material, and it will probably rely on some great legs to get it where it will eventually go. Taking back +130 is another tremendous value. I'm predicting right around $15 to $17mil on this one.

JP

 

[Oren1]

Good luck JC.... I still haven't made up my mind yet, I've been burned too many timesat WSEX taking their "value" plays, but I'm also tempted to take both of those... Of course you can also buy an extra million on that Tomb Raider over/under at Olympic. And their Seabiscuit line is 19... (-115)

 

[jcambert]

Oren, I mis-timed my play and now it turns out I got a crappy line, however, I'm still confident in these plays, percentage wise. YOu can get the UNDER at even money now at WSEX, but getting an extra mil. And, with Tomb Raider, you can get an extra mil AND +120. Regardless, I think these are very strong plays. It is highly likely that at least one of these will come in.

JP

 

[Oren1]

I agree.... after getting raped on that Charlies Angel line that I absolutely loved though, I'm pretty wary of taking "value" plays there. BB2 was apparently tracking well, which could be the reason people were hitting the over 52, and it didn't hit, it's not a perfect system, so who knows.

 

[jcambert]

A PTA of $8000 is all that is required for the Tomb Raider play to hit. A PTA of no more than $8500 is all that is required for the other play to hit. $8500 is a VERY high number for the type of film that this is. VERY high...almost unprecedented. I actually can't think of a single film that is comparable, other than Road to Perdition, that has had this high a PTA. And, it has already been mentioned that Road to Perdition really isn't that close of a comparison.

In addition, as bad as the Tomb Raider movie will probably be, there are still SOME people out there who WANT to watch it, and, a PTA of $8000 for one of these summer "blockbusters" is NOT a very high number. As bad as CA2 and all these other films did, they ALL did upwards of $10mil.

I really, really like both of these plays.

JP

 

[Oren1]

I like them a lot too, the only reason I'm staying away form them is becasue they are low chalk plays at WSEX, heh. Again, good luck dog! Tomb Raiders buzz is very low, but Pirates as you know had a somewhat low buzz as well and look what heppene to that one.